Not insurance advice. A summary of workers’ compensation loss cost and rate filings announced through early November 2026. Some are approved, some are proposed and pending. Your actual premium depends on your carrier, class codes, payroll, experience mod, and credits.
Quick answer
Workers’ comp is getting cheaper in most of the country for 2027, and more expensive in California.
- Big decreases: New York cut loss costs 21.9% (Oct. 1, 2026). Florida has a 7.4% decrease proposed for Jan. 1, 2027. Virginia has 5.6% proposed for April 2027. Connecticut (−4.9%, contracting −6.0%), Oklahoma (−4.8%), and New Hampshire (−2.9%) are approved for Jan. 1.
- Flat: Missouri’s filing is 0% overall, with contracting down 2.0%.
- Up: California’s average advisory pure premium rate is $1.65 per $100 of payroll for policies from Sept. 1, 2026, after the rating bureau asked for 10.4% more, driven by cumulative trauma claims.
- Your bill can still go up in a state where rates fall: payroll growth, class code changes, a worse experience mod, and audit adjustments all move premium.
On this page
For most trade shops, workers’ comp is one of the biggest overhead costs after payroll and vehicles. Rates have been falling in most states for a decade, and 2027 continues the trend in most places. But “rates fell” and “my premium fell” aren’t the same thing. Here’s what changed, and how to make sure the decrease actually reaches your renewal.
State-by-state changes
| State | Change | Effective | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | −21.9% loss costs | Oct. 1, 2026 | Approved | Decreases every year since 2020; about $1,779 average savings per employer; varies by class |
| Florida | −7.4% average rate | Jan. 1, 2027 | Proposed by NCCI; OIR decision pending | OIR typically orders in early November |
| Virginia | −5.6% voluntary loss costs; −8.2% assigned risk | April 1, 2027 | Proposed; SCC review | Case INS-2026-00031 |
| Connecticut | −4.9% loss costs; −5.8% assigned risk | Jan. 1, 2027 | Approved | Contracting −6.0%; 13th straight annual decrease |
| Oklahoma | −4.8% loss costs | Jan. 1, 2027 | Approved | — |
| New Hampshire | −2.9% loss costs; −3.4% assigned risk | Jan. 1, 2027 | Approved | 15th straight annual decrease; about 68% lower over 15 years |
| Rhode Island | −2.5% loss costs | Aug. 1, 2026 | Approved | — |
| Alabama | −2.2% voluntary; +1.6% assigned risk | March 1, 2027 | Proposed | — |
| Pennsylvania | −1.2% | April 1, 2026 | Approved | — |
| Missouri | 0% overall | 2027 | Filed | Contracting −2.0%; manufacturing +1.2% |
| California | Average $1.65 per $100 of payroll | Sept. 1, 2026 | Approved (advisory) | WCIRB had proposed rates 10.4% above Sept. 2025 |
Sources: Insurance Journal (New York, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, California, Pennsylvania); FUBA (Florida); Work Comp Brief (Virginia, Rhode Island); NCCI state advisory forum summaries (Alabama, Virginia); WorkCompWire (Missouri). Checked November 2026. Texas, Illinois, Georgia, and others file on their own schedules; check your state insurance department.
Why rates are falling, and why California isn’t
In most states the driver is the same: fewer claims. New York credited fewer lost-time claims and better workplace safety. Missouri’s filing pointed to a long decline in claim frequency, partly offset by higher attorney involvement: 35.2% of 2025 lost-time claims, against a 22.3% countrywide average.
California is the exception. The rating bureau cited increased frequency of cumulative trauma claims, higher medical costs, and higher claims-handling costs. California employers are paying more while most of the country pays less.
Loss costs vs. your premium
Most of these filings change loss costs, not your actual rate. In NCCI states and most others:
| Piece | Who sets it | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Loss cost | Rating bureau (NCCI or state bureau), approved by the state | Expected cost of claims per $100 of payroll, by class code |
| Loss cost multiplier | Each insurer | Adds the insurer’s expenses and profit |
| Rate | Insurer | Loss cost × multiplier |
| Experience mod | Rating bureau, from your claims history | Raises or lowers your premium compared to average |
| Schedule credits and debits | Insurer underwriter | Adjustments for your safety program, operations, and market conditions |
So a 4.9% loss cost decrease only reaches you if your insurer keeps its multiplier and credits where they were. In a soft market with falling loss costs, some carriers trim the credits they were giving.
The basic premium formula: payroll ÷ 100 × rate × experience mod, then credits, discounts, and fees. See workers’ comp class codes for trades for the class codes trade shops use.
Why your bill can go up anyway
- Payroll grew. Premium is a percentage of payroll. A 15% raise across your techs beats a 5% rate cut.
- Your experience mod went up. A single lost-time claim can raise your mod for three years.
- Class code changes. An auditor moving payroll from a lower-rated code to a higher one changes your bill more than any filing.
- Uninsured subs at audit. Payments to subcontractors without their own comp coverage are usually added to your payroll. The new $2,000 1099 threshold doesn’t change that; see the 1099 threshold post.
- Credits shrank. The schedule credit your agent negotiated last year may not survive renewal.
- Your class moved differently than the average. The headline is an average. Contracting fell more than average in Connecticut and Missouri, but some classes rise even in a decreasing state, as New York noted.
Example: same shop, three states
Illustration only, using made-up round numbers to show how the pieces interact. An HVAC shop with $500,000 in field payroll, a rate of $3.00 per $100, and a 1.00 mod:
| Rate change | Payroll change | Mod change | Premium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starting point | — | $500,000 | 1.00 | $15,000 |
| Rates down 5%, nothing else changes | $2.85 | $500,000 | 1.00 | $14,250 |
| Rates down 5%, payroll up 10% | $2.85 | $550,000 | 1.00 | $15,675 |
| Rates down 5%, payroll up 10%, mod up to 1.15 | $2.85 | $550,000 | 1.15 | $18,026 |
The rate cut saved $750. Growth and one bad claim cost far more. Rates matter, but payroll accuracy, claims, and class codes matter more.
How to use the decrease at renewal
- Ask your agent for the filing number for your class. Know what your code’s loss cost did, not just the state average.
- Ask whether the carrier is passing it through. Compare this year’s rate per $100 to last year’s, class by class.
- Ask about credits. If the schedule credit dropped, ask why, and what safety documentation would bring it back.
- Shop it if the decrease didn’t reach you. A falling-rate market is when carriers compete.
- Check your mod worksheet. Errors happen: claims closed for less than reserved, payroll reported in the wrong class.
- Estimate payroll honestly. Lowballing payroll to cut the deposit just moves the cost to the audit.
California contractors: the 2028 mandate
California contractors face rising rates and a coverage deadline. Under SB 216, as delayed by SB 1455, every CSLB-licensed contractor must carry workers’ comp by January 1, 2028, even with no employees. HVAC (C-20), concrete (C-8), asbestos abatement (C-22), and tree service (D-49) are already required. A solo electrician or plumber quoting a policy for 2028 will be quoting into a rising market. See California employment laws for trade employers.
Renewal checklist
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